The need for a business cycle dating committee

Business cycle dating committee members funny

The Committee does not forecast. Currently, India relies mostly on individual studies for the dating of business cycles. Furthermore, note that the Committee has dropped since October the previous requirement that peaks or troughs mark turning points in economic activity in most countries of the euro area. Measuring the Business Cycle Expansion is measured from the trough or bottom of the previous business cycle to the peak of the current cycle, while recession is measured from the peak to the trough. It is thus possible that the euro area is in a recession while some of the individual countries are not, and that the business cycle dates differ for the Euro-area and for individual countries.

The following period is an expansion. Note that since October the Committee has dropped its requirement that peaks or troughs mark turning points in economic activity in most countries of the euro area. As a result, the decision regarding the dating of business cycles is not political. Second, we consider the depth of the decline in economic activity. The rationale for this change is that the Committee feels that the decision not to date is as informative as a decision to date.

The Committee wants to make sure that its characterization of Euro-area economic activity which is its sole objective is not affected by rising heterogeneity in the Euro-area. It analyses and compares the behaviour of key macroeconomic variables such as consumption, investment, unemployment, money supply, inflation, stock prices, etc.

It also reviewed different techniques adopted by various international organizations. Most of the research in business cycles is done keeping in mind advanced industrial economies. See, for instance, the October or June findings of the Committee. The Committee does not have a fixed definition of economic activity. The Committee meets when it feels that data developments warrant examining whether there has been a turnaround in economic activity.

Most of the research in

The need for a business cycle dating committee - Livemint

This responsibility does not lie with the government or with the central bank. The committee waits long enough so that the existence of a peak or trough is not in doubt and does not follow a fixed time rule. Adopting a dating criterion that refers solely to aggregate Euro-area economic activity achieves this objective most transparently. In addition, firms can re-evaluate projections of sales and profits, and the consumers their purchasing and investment plans, based on information on transitions to new business cycle phases. The Committee wants to ensure that its characterization of Euro-area economic activity which is its sole objective is not affected by rising heterogeneity in the Euro-area.

See for instance the October or

Previously, it did so only after meetings that did date a turnaround. The President and the Research Director are ex officio members of the Committee.

It also reviewed different techniques adoptedIt analyses and compares theThe Committee wants